UBS announced a study recently that states 89% of iPhone owners plan to stay loyal to Apple with their next smartphone purchase. I’m going to stay away from the fact that the survey was only of 515 people, or that it was self reporting of a preference for an action that might happen someday maybe. I’m going to say that it’s completely true, but flip it around.
This means that 11% of people won’t stay with the iPhone. Comscore reports Here and Here and (with real techniques) showing the iPhones growth is at only at 3.2% over the last year. With only 89% of iPhone users considering staying iPhone users when their 2 year contract expire iPhone loses 5.5% a year conservatively. 5.5% loss > 3.2% growth. This study is actually a negative prediction in overall market share.
See you can make stats say anything you want.
Update: Real numbers