Needham Shock Jock

Charles Wolf released an interesting report to investors on the 19th. I couldn’t find it online so I requested the data directly from Mr. Wolf. Here it is. I felt that is was fishy so I investigated a little more.

On page 9 of his report wolf has a quote to support the inferior nature of the apps within the android market place from this article.

Darrell Etherington, “Apple Loses Ground to Android, But the App Store Still Dominates,” gigaom, February 9, 2011.

The vast amount of spamware (45,000 out of 100,000 apps in the Android Marketplace are spam apps) and the low number of top-tier game titles (20 for Android vs. 306 for iOS) and other app categories all play their part in making the Android app market a cottage industry compared to the profit-engine of the iOS App store.

Unfortunately this is never in the article or written by Darrell Etherinton, its a comment on the article from a user who goes by mrrtmrrt who signs his comment Mart. I’m still trying to track this guy down. But he loves commenting. InforWorld, Forbes, The Guardian, Marketwatch and the list goes on.

In another quote, page 10, said to be from
Kyle Baxter, “Android Isn’t About Building a Mobile Platform,” tightwind.net, January 4, 2011

Android’s market may… be terrible in comparison to Apple’s App Store for paid applications… because… discouraging paid applications on the Android platform is in Google’s interest.

The real quote is

For example, Android’s market may not be terrible in comparison to Apple’s App Store for paid applications just because Google hasn’t yet finished it; rather, discouraging paid applications on the Android platform is in Google’s interest.

A cleaver use of eliplise.

I wondered about the accuracy of his numbers and more importantly the accuracy of his interruption of the numbers from IDC. I requested the data from IDC directly and got this response from IDC PR.

Unfortunately, I can’t share that data with you — it’s proprietary research that was unfortunately usurped by a Needham analyst and plastered all over the Web.

From what I gather from released un-usurped data, Nielsen April 2011, comScore June 2011, and most importantly of all IDC June 9th 2011, the same company Wolf quoted the majority of his data from, Android is in no shape to stop or slow down anytime soon. This data which covers that same time period as Wolf’s report have drastically differnt trands.  I think IDC sums it up best

IDC expects Android, which passed Symbian as the leading operating system worldwide in Q4 2010, to grow to more than 40% of the market in the second half of 2011. A significant and growing list of vendors who have made Android the cornerstone of their respective smartphone strategies is propelling the growth of Android

iOS was the third ranked OS going into 2011 and will remain a force in the mobile phone market throughout the forecast. After an initial explosive growth period, iOS is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the latter half of the forecast as the smartphone market matures and diversifies. Although a small market share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth through the end of 2015.

I got ahold of William A. Stofega, Program Director of Mobile Device Technology at IDC and got his opinion from the same dataset that Mr Wolf has.

Quarter over quarter there will be fits and starts for all manufactures.  Android is a driver in terms of growth no matter whose numbers you look at. IDC see android as the leader in mobile right now especially with a huge growth in lower tier and emerging markets like China. Regarding Mr Wolf, its fine that he used our data, but IDC is unaware of his methodology of analysis. The bottom line is what the end of the year numbers will be.

I contacted Mr Wolf and asked for his methodology and dataset, but haven’t received a reply as of publication.

With the fact that Wolf’s main source of data, IDC,  sees Android as the leader and has the expectation of continued growth, the published numbers from multiple sources, I cannot see how Mr Wolf has reached his conclusions. He may have taken an extremely narrow subset of data to produce his numbers, but as IDC stated, its the end of the year numbers that matter, not a subset of data. Without his methodology and the dataset one cannot check his numbers, but if he cannot even cite a source correctly, I don’t trust his statistical analysis skills. In the end I think that Mr Wolf wrote this report for shock value and to make a name for himself. I don’t think I am alone in that opinion.

Finally just a reminder, don’t believe everything you read, check the sources, and check to make sure the sources were quoted correctly.

Lapdog

The Sun

The leading computer company plans to build a system that will sense when people are trying to video live events — and turn off their cameras.  A patent application filed by Apple revealed how the technology would work.
If an iPhone were held up and used to film during a concert infra-red sensors would detect it.  These sensors would then contact the iPhone and automatically disable its camera function

Giving a cheap, widely available sensors access to your phones functions seems like a great idea.  This is nothing more than a lapdog trying to please its masters

The Xbox360, more than gaming

Microsoft posted a blog article on how the Xbox 360 is much more than a gaming machine. The take home message is that 40% of Xbox use is non games, which include movies, music, TV shows.   Those features along make the thing worth buying, AND it plays games! 

Its no reason why its outselling every other console and has an install base of 53 million units, 10 million which have kinetics.  Not bad for a 5 year old system.

Cat and Mouse

Ed Bott with ZDNet

The bad guys have wasted no time. Hours after Apple released this update and the initial set of definitions, a new variation of Mac Defender is in the wild. This one has a new name, Mdinstall.pkg, and it has been specifically formulated to skate past Apple’s malware-blocking code.

The file has a date and time stamp from last night at 9:24PM Pacific time. That’s less than 8 hours after Apple’s security update was released.

On a test system using Safari with default settings, it behaved exactly as before, beginning the installation process with no password required.

As PC virus experts know, this cat-and-mouse game can go on indefinitely. Your move, Apple.

Welcome to a viable amount of the market share Apple.